What remains after exit? Evidence of lasting change in northern Afghanistan’s carpet sector

This ex-post study explores what remains of market systems interventions after programme exit, using northern Afghanistan’s carpet sector as a test case.

While MSD programmes often claim to deliver lasting change beyond their lifecycle, such claims are rarely examined. The study revisits two ILO sister programmes implemented between 2015 and 2022 - Road to Jobs (R2J) and its successor Road to Decent Jobs for All Afghans (R2DJ4ALL) - to assess whether key changes have endured through severe shocks, including COVID-19, regime change and prolonged economic disruption.

Using a low-cost follow-up methodology, the review reconnects with former partners, sector institutions and women workers. It focuses on the Carpet Weaving Centre (CWC) model, which shifted production away from dispersed home-based weaving towards shared centres supporting skills development, quality control and improved working conditions.

Findings show that several changes have persisted: firms continue to use CWCs for recruitment and training, the model has spread beyond initial partners, and women-led carpet businesses have emerged. However, wages remain low and work precarious, underscoring both the potential and limits of MSD in highly fragile contexts.

Context for this ILO study
Programmes using the market systems approach claim that their most successful interventions create impact for target groups that extends beyond the life of the programme. Yet, such claims are rarely validated. Very few ex-post studies have been commissioned, and this gap represents an oversight.